Oh, thank you. This has been delicious to read. Up until now I have been trying to debunk the distorted 'base load' concept by just pointing out how in the past domestic hot water systems (for example) were given over to being provided with heat by coal fired electricity in periods of low demand (e.g. early morning hours), just to give the generators something to do at night rather than winding down and earning less money. Thank you for a comprehensive briefing.
It is debatable that we need any more transmission,
1. Germany with far more variable wind/solar output than us and far less open space expects to be generating 1,800 MWh/square km/y within a decade from onshore renewables. Given more space and better wind and solar we should be able to generate 2,200-2,500 MWh/ per square km. If so we can supply all the load every load centre needs within less than 150 km of the load.
2. We are using only about 10% of our potential roof/carpark space for customer solar.
a) France is expecting to have 40 GW of carpark solar by 2030. That would be equivalent to about 20-25 GW here
b) A UNSW study a few years ago identified potential for 186 GW of rooftop solar, using 250W panels. With 10% more roofspace and 440-500 W panels we probably have space for a 350GW of rooftop solar
c) Unshaded north and west facing facades of office buildings and warehouses as well as solar windows have potential for something like 20-40 GW
Potentially we have 450GW of behind the meter solar which needs no transmission and even if curtailed down to an average 10% CF is 390 TWh, 50% more electricity than we use now.
3. Existing utilisation can be significantly improved:
a) Some of our transmission lines, particularly to hydro plants run at 20-30% capacity, floating solar or adjacent wind and solar within 1-15 km of the hydro substation could double or triple the annual utilisaton of the lines
b) by building hydbrid wind/solar systems with a relatively short duration battery, something like 20-25% of the nominal peak power for 4-6 hours, the transmission link to a wind/solar farm could run at 60-80% capacity rather than 25-35%
c) Dynamic rating of lines allows them to carry 20-50% more current on windy hot days or cold nights
d) reconductoring of lines with carbon fibre cored conductors allows them to double current carrying capacity for the same wind and structural load
e) building storage near the load like customer batteries, community batteries, substation and terminal station batteries like Swanbank or Epping then the 550kV lines can be running at high load from 11 AM rather than wait till 4-6 pm
Well I remember the days of trying to shift load from the pointy end of the load duration curve using tariffs and controlled appliances, etc just so we could keep running those big arse kettles above their minimum rating. Now we have to look at the blunt end as it drops its bundle and they still want to build big arse kettles. We will be needing to find lots of load and/or turn off the cheapest energy. Makes no sense to me but the lounge experts (aka as village idiots) stridently yell for base load generators, just because…
Oh, thank you. This has been delicious to read. Up until now I have been trying to debunk the distorted 'base load' concept by just pointing out how in the past domestic hot water systems (for example) were given over to being provided with heat by coal fired electricity in periods of low demand (e.g. early morning hours), just to give the generators something to do at night rather than winding down and earning less money. Thank you for a comprehensive briefing.
It is debatable that we need any more transmission,
1. Germany with far more variable wind/solar output than us and far less open space expects to be generating 1,800 MWh/square km/y within a decade from onshore renewables. Given more space and better wind and solar we should be able to generate 2,200-2,500 MWh/ per square km. If so we can supply all the load every load centre needs within less than 150 km of the load.
2. We are using only about 10% of our potential roof/carpark space for customer solar.
a) France is expecting to have 40 GW of carpark solar by 2030. That would be equivalent to about 20-25 GW here
b) A UNSW study a few years ago identified potential for 186 GW of rooftop solar, using 250W panels. With 10% more roofspace and 440-500 W panels we probably have space for a 350GW of rooftop solar
c) Unshaded north and west facing facades of office buildings and warehouses as well as solar windows have potential for something like 20-40 GW
Potentially we have 450GW of behind the meter solar which needs no transmission and even if curtailed down to an average 10% CF is 390 TWh, 50% more electricity than we use now.
3. Existing utilisation can be significantly improved:
a) Some of our transmission lines, particularly to hydro plants run at 20-30% capacity, floating solar or adjacent wind and solar within 1-15 km of the hydro substation could double or triple the annual utilisaton of the lines
b) by building hydbrid wind/solar systems with a relatively short duration battery, something like 20-25% of the nominal peak power for 4-6 hours, the transmission link to a wind/solar farm could run at 60-80% capacity rather than 25-35%
c) Dynamic rating of lines allows them to carry 20-50% more current on windy hot days or cold nights
d) reconductoring of lines with carbon fibre cored conductors allows them to double current carrying capacity for the same wind and structural load
e) building storage near the load like customer batteries, community batteries, substation and terminal station batteries like Swanbank or Epping then the 550kV lines can be running at high load from 11 AM rather than wait till 4-6 pm
Well I remember the days of trying to shift load from the pointy end of the load duration curve using tariffs and controlled appliances, etc just so we could keep running those big arse kettles above their minimum rating. Now we have to look at the blunt end as it drops its bundle and they still want to build big arse kettles. We will be needing to find lots of load and/or turn off the cheapest energy. Makes no sense to me but the lounge experts (aka as village idiots) stridently yell for base load generators, just because…
Love it Alex, excellent use of diagrams to help simplify and demystify the complexities of the energy system. Keep em rolling team!
You beauty! An entire post (nearly) on load duration curves! My favourite!
This was wonderfully explained. Thanks!